- Prospects of doubling global wheat yields
- Europe’s Long-Term Growth Prospects - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Prospects and Challenges for U.S.–India Technology Cooperation
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But it remains to be seen whether, under the pressure of crisis, it will fare any better. Although the crisis originated in the United States, the Great Recession hit Europe harder, reflecting some of the structural rigidities that Lisbon attempted unsuccessfully to correct. The European private sector response to the crisis was slower than that in the United States. Compared to the United States, Europe depended more on manufacturing, construction—two sectors hit hardest by the crisis—and bank lending; European banks were in turn more reliant on less stable wholesale financing than on deposits.
However, publicsector retrenchment and tax hikes are insufficient: these countries must also reverse their considerable loss of international competitiveness since the euro adoption. During this long adjustment period, Europe will be highly vulnerable to adverse shocks. Banks remain weak and could threaten public finances—the Anglo Irish Bank fiasco continues to make this clear—but are also set to constrain credit growth.
European Central Bank ECB interest rates have little room to go lower, and the divergence of growth rates within Europe will further complicate monetary policy: holding interest rates at record lows could prompt carry trades and higher-than-desired inflation in the European core, while raising them could push the GIIPS even deeper into recession.
Finally, policy makers from around the world must recognize that European weaknesses are global weaknesses.
Prospects of doubling global wheat yields
Given that the EU is responsible for 35 percent of world trade 2 and 40 percent of outward foreign direct investment, greater turbulence in Europe is unlikely to be contained in the region. The GDP per capita in the EU12 3 is higher than that in Japan, three times higher than that in Brazil, nearly five times higher than that in China, and ten times higher than that in India. In the short term, avoiding sluggish and uncertain growth will be difficult—if not impossible—as Europe corrects the excesses that caused the crisis, reduces government deficits, and narrows internal competitiveness imbalances.
A sharply contracting labor force the result of demographic trends will weigh on European growth in the long term as well.
Europe’s Long-Term Growth Prospects - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
However, if appropriate reforms are passed, Europe could capitalize on a number of opportunities unique to the continent and possibly return to its relatively high pre-crisis growth path over a sustained period. The weight of the current crisis continues to pull the baseline trajectory of European growth downward. The changes outlined above offer hope, but they will not come automatically and cannot be made on the margins.
Both refer to GDP per capita measured using purchasing power parity. In this note, the twelfth economy, Luxembourg, is excluded. You are leaving the website for the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy and entering a website for another of Carnegie's global centers. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Prospects and Challenges for U.S.–India Technology Cooperation
Sign up for Carnegie Email. Experts Publications Events. Experts Publications. Experten Publikationen. Latest Analysis Publications Popular Projects. Programs Projects. Regions and Countries Issues. October 08, Article. Related Media and Tools. Print Page. Growth in all EMDE regions has been weaker than expected amid softening external demand and, in some countries, persistent domestic headwinds. Risks remain firmly on the downside. Global growth is expected to slow to 2. Click on the button to download data into Excel.
Send us an email at prospects worldbank. This page in: EN. Global Economic Prospects. Toggle navigation. Overview Global growth has continued to soften this year. Subdued investment in emerging market and developing economies EMDEs is dampening potential growth prospects.
Risks to the outlook remain firmly on the downside, including the possibility of escalating trade tensions. Another concern is rising debt, which may make it difficult for EMDEs to respond to adverse developments and to finance growth-enhancing investments. Reforms to boost private investment and productivity growth are needed, particularly in low-income countries, which face more significant challenges today than they did in the early s. Global growth has continued to soften this year. World commodity markets Download the October issue. News on the world economy Download the October issue.
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Global Outlook. Regional Outlooks EMDE growth is projected to pick up from a four-year low of 4 percent in to 4. East Asia and Pacific. Growth in the East Asia and Pacific region is projected to slow from 6. In China, growth is expected to decelerate from 6. In the rest of the region growth is also expected to moderate to 5. Europe and Central Asia. Regional growth is expected to firm to 2.
Excluding Turkey, regional growth is expected to grow 2. Growth in the Western Balkans is anticipated to rise to 3. Latin America and the Caribbean. Regional growth expected to be a subdued 1. In Brazil, a weak cyclical recovery is expected to gain traction, with growth rising to 2. Middle East and North Africa. Regional growth is projected to rise to 3. Growth among oil exporters is anticipated to pick up to 2. Among oil importing economies, increasing growth is predicated on policy reform progress and healthy tourism prospects.
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South Asia. Domestic demand growth is expected to remain robust with support from monetary and fiscal policy, in particular in India. Growth in India is projected to accelerate to 7. Sub-Saharan Africa. Regional growth is expected to accelerate to 3. While per capita GDP is expected to rise in the region, it will nevertheless be insufficient to significantly reduce poverty. In , growth in South Africa is anticipated to rise to 1.